Figure 1

Risk-benefit analysis. Given p(x | benefit) by the probability distribution function for benefit (complete granulation) and p(x | risk) by the probability distribution function for risk (moderate and severe adverse events or amputation) then the Bayes Factor (B_br) is: $B_{\mathit{br}}=\frac{p\left(x|\mathit{benefit}\right)}{p\left(x|\mathit{risk}\right)}$ representing a summary of the evidence provided by the data in favor of benefit (red), as opposed to risk (blue). A value larger than 1 means a favorable benefit-risk ratio. In this case: Bayes factor = 5.4; difference between probabilities: 61% (95% CI: 59%–64%).